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Cyclone Alfred 2025: Track and Timeline Explained

Alfred formed northeast of Cooktown, moved east and then south over the Coral Sea, briefly tracked southeast, turned abruptly west toward southeast Queensland, crossed Moreton Island, weakened near Bribie Island and moved onto the mainland as a subtropical system.

Timeline

  1. 2025-02-21: Tropical Low 22U formed northeast of Cooktown and initially moved east.
  2. 2025-02-23: The system became Tropical Cyclone Alfred near Willis Island.
  3. 2025-02-27 to 2025-02-28: Alfred peaked at category 4 while moving south over the Coral Sea.
  4. 2025-03-02 to 2025-03-04: The system moved southeast, underwent structural changes and then turned sharply west.
  5. 2025-03-08: Alfred crossed Moreton Island, weakened near Bribie Island and reached mainland southeast Queensland later that evening.

Cyclone Alfred’s 2025 track was unusual for its length, changes in direction and very slow final approach. Tropical Low 22U formed northeast of Cooktown on February 21 and moved generally east. It became Tropical Cyclone Alfred on February 23 near Willis Island, then turned south as it strengthened. The system spent much of its life over the Coral Sea before reversing course toward the densely populated southeast Queensland coast. [1][2]

Alfred moved south and reached its category 4 peak on February 27–28 while well offshore. From March 1 it weakened in less favorable conditions. Steering then carried it southeast on March 2 and 3, away from Queensland, while its intensity varied between categories 1 and 2. Interaction with the subtropical jet altered its structure enough for the Bureau to classify it as subtropical on March 3. [1][3]

The decisive change came on March 4, when weak steering influences allowed Alfred to turn abruptly west toward southeast Queensland. The system moved slowly and sometimes erratically, which complicated forecast timing. Environmental conditions on March 5 allowed tropical redevelopment, and Alfred returned to category 1 before briefly reaching category 2 early on March 6. Forecasts increasingly focused on the Brisbane, Sunshine Coast, Gold Coast and northern New South Wales region. [1][4]

The approach remained slow. Alfred weakened to category 1 while about 160 kilometres east of Brisbane on March 7, then crossed Moreton Island around 1 a.m. AEST on March 8. The Bureau downgraded it to a low near the northern tip of the island a few hours later. The circulation stalled east of Bribie Island for much of the day, regained subtropical classification, crossed Bribie Island about 8 p.m. and moved onto the mainland about 9 p.m. [1][2]

A track line alone does not capture Alfred’s impacts. Its long parallel movement along the coast generated persistent easterly swell and severe erosion before the center arrived. Slow motion near the coast prolonged wind and rain, while the remnant system continued producing heavy falls after losing tropical-cyclone status. Five-day totals exceeded 200 mm across a broad area, with totals above 600 mm in parts of northern New South Wales and near the Queensland–New South Wales border. [1][2][5]

The event also shows why historical timelines can differ by several hours. The Bureau reports some milestones in AEST and others in UTC, and Queensland did not observe daylight saving time while New South Wales did. A date attached to the international best track may therefore differ from a local news timestamp. The final post-event history is the best source for a consistent sequence because it incorporates later analysis of structure, intensity and position. [1][3]

The most useful summary is geographic: formation northeast of Cooktown, an eastward move, a long southern leg in the Coral Sea, a short southeastward retreat, an abrupt westward turn, and a slow passage across the Moreton Bay islands to the mainland. That route explains why Alfred was both a severe offshore cyclone and a prolonged rain, surf and wind event near southeast Queensland even though it weakened before mainland arrival. [1][2][5]

Sources

  1. Australian Bureau of Meteorology: Severe Tropical Cyclone Alfred (22U)
  2. Australian Bureau of Meteorology: 2024–25 Northern Wet Season
  3. Australian Bureau of Meteorology: Tropical Climate Update, 11 March 2025
  4. Australian Bureau of Meteorology: Tropical Climate Update, 4 March 2025
  5. Australian Bureau of Meteorology: Australia in March 2025

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